In the short term, the demand in the chemical fiber market is weakening month on month. The printing and dyeing process is an important indicator of the direction of terminal demand, and currently, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has shown a downward trend. As for the export of polyester filament, which has performed well this year, with the official implementation of BIS certification in India, the overall export volume is expected to begin to decline. In addition, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of chemical fibers has accumulated, and the focus of inventory has shifted upwards. Enterprises have offered discounts and promotions, and the efficiency has also fallen to a low level.
Looking ahead to the whole year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the pressure may increase towards the end of the year. On a year-on-year basis, due to the lower base in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of various industry indicators will still have a good recovery this year.
In the long run, with the continuous recovery of the economy, the continuous improvement of the employment situation, the steady increase and optimization of market supply, and the effective implementation of consumption promotion policies, the foundation for restoring and expanding consumption will continue to be consolidated. The warm macro expectations will provide good support for the economic operation of China's chemical fiber industry. However, the key issue facing the industry is still whether the supply-demand relationship can be effectively improved, and it is expected to go through a long repair cycle. The possibility of the industry improving next year is even greater. Specifically, the pressure on the supply side is expected to be alleviated. Starting from 2024, the production capacity growth rate of the polyester filament industry will enter a low range, which will help avoid further escalation of supply and demand contradictions. The potential of the demand side is expected to be unleashed. In terms of domestic sales, thanks to the effective implementation of policies to expand domestic demand, China's textile and clothing consumption stock can be guaranteed. At the same time, its increment needs to be explored, such as a rich consumer circle, continuous expansion of industrial textile application fields, and the emergence of new forms of online retail; In terms of export, with the changing international division of labor in China's textile industry, the foreign trade structure of various major products in the industrial chain is being adjusted and optimized. It is expected that the export share of chemical fibers and their products will continue to show a good growth trend.
